UFC Fight Night: London. Those 4 words bring back a wave of memories. Paddy Pimblett’s first UFC walkout in front of a crowd. Molly McCann’s spinning back elbow. Muhammad Mokaev’s incredible debut. And who could forget Jorge Masvidal’s return to title contention with his knockout of Darren Till. Simply put, UFC events at the O2 feel different, and the return of Tom Aspinall brings that feeling as well. Without further ado, let’s get into the Best Bets for Saturday’s card!
Current Record: 2-0-1
(Previous Picks for UFC Fight Night Jacksonville) Won: David Onama +3.5 (+100), Tabitha Ricci (-135). Pushed: Justin Tafa via KO)
Ketlen Vieira via Decision (+120)
Let’s kick things off with some plus odds! This feels less like a Vieira pick, and more like a Kianzad fade, but at plus odds, I am more than happy to take it. As of writing this, the combined age of Kianzad’s last 4 wins (and her only 4 of this decade) is 157 (!!!), averaging out to 39.25 years old. Simply put, a win over Lina Lansberg being your most recent win since UFC 263 is not someone I’m overly keen on.
Now, I wouldn’t say I’m a huge fan of Vieira either – I felt as though she lost to Holly Holm (was given the decision), and then faced a similar fate in a tightly contested bout with Raquel Pennington, losing a close split decision. However, robberies or not, Vieira is in her prime, has beaten two former champs in the past 18 months, and, in my opinion, is easily the better fighter.
That reasoning is what leads to the pick of Ketlen Vieira by decision. It almost feels like the line is off to a degree, but I won’t have any complaints about it! Neither fighter has stopped a fight since 2018, with Vieira only having one finish in the UFC. I think it’s pretty safe to say that the expectation is this fight will go the full fifteen minutes, and considering the paths each woman has taken to this fight, I’ll wager on the Brazilian to cruise to a dominant decision.
Davey Grant v Daniel Marcos – Fight Goes the Distance (-125)
Ah, the Davey Grant prospect test. Chito Vera takes a UD over him; faces Frankie Edgar next. Adrian Yanez takes a split decision over him; opens up the main card in his hometown next. Basically, the UFC loves using the Englishman as a litmus test for the next big Bantamweight prospects – and this feels no different. Grant will welcome Daniel Marcos to the O2, serving as the featured prelim of the card. Both fighters are coming off memorable victories: Grant victorious via an inverted arm triangle over Raphael Assuncao, while Marcos defeated Saimon Oliveira with a flurry of knees. This one will be good.
Now, I’m sure you’re wondering – ‘if they both finished their last fights, why would it go the distance?’ I’m glad you asked. Davey Grant doesn’t get knocked out. Marcos only knocks people out. Davey Grant, despite being on the Ultimate Fighter in 2013, and in the UFC since then, has never been knocked out. He’s faced the aforementioned Chito Vera twice, Adrian Yanez, and Jonathan Martinez, yet was never finished due to strikes.
That fact is important. Marcos has just one submission victory in his career, and that came during his second amateur fight. Not exactly Jacare Souza on the ground. He also has about a fifty-fifty split in his career of finishes and decisions, and I have a hard time believing Grant will be as easy of an opponent that Saimon Oliveira was. This bet comes down to one thing. Does Daniel Marcos have a chin? I believe he does. And I believe this fight provides fifteen minutes of pure entertainment.
Andre Muniz v Paul Craig – Under 1.5 Rounds (-115)
Paul Craig as a fighter – describe it in a word. I certainly can’t pick just one. Entertaining. Wild. What just happened? He truly is one-of-a-kind, and his jiu-jitsu abilities are some of the best in the sport. He’ll debut as a middleweight against maybe the only other fighter in the heavier divisions with a claim as the best jiu-jitsu practitioner: Andre Muniz.
Both men are coming off of losses – Craig to Johnny Walker in a fight that was insane for as long as it lasted; and Muniz to Brendan Allen, shockingly being submitted in the third round, headlining the UFC Fight Night Krylov v Spann on short notice. Despite that, this fight is filled with intrigue. What will the gameplan be for either fighter? Craig is elite off of his back, but Muniz has shown incredible top control. Muniz’s armbars are deadly, but will a submission loss have him hesitant to engage? Both Craig and Muniz will answer these questions come Saturday, in what is sure to be a high-level matchup.
Onto the pick! I don’t foresee either fighter being hesitant. From what we know, both men hunt finishes, and the stylistic matchup will provide a multitude of opportunities for a submission. Also, Paul Craig fights simply don’t last very long. Six of his last nine fights have ended in the first round! Muniz also gets the job done quickly, innin in round one. This is going to be a battle for as long as it lasts, and it would be surprising to see the start of round two, let alone more than that.
Featured image credits to Embed from Getty Images
