Charles Oliveira’s flashy finishing streak against the best of the UFC’s marquee division will be put to the test at UFC 280. The once again the vacant 155-pound title will be challenged for, this time by Dagestani grappler and Nurmagomedov/AKA alumni Islam Makhachev. After losing his belt due to a .5-pound weight miss, Oliveira will be forced to regain it and cement his legacy against his first true grappler since winning the belt.
Regaining The Belt
With knockout wins over Michael Chandler and Justin Gaethje and a submission win over Dustin Poirier, Oliveira has proven his ability to strike alongside his fabled ground game. The standup of Oliveira has shown to be a problem even for lightweight’s best strikers in his title fights, using his front kicks to keep his distance until he deems otherwise. In boxing range, watch for his hooks showing versatility, also being used to clasp a clinch. Once established, Oliveira will stab the midsection with knees, pop the head with punches and threaten grappling exchanges. A lot of Oliveira’s success has come from overwhelming pressure early in the fight, crumbling Poirier and Gaethje with the bodywork and willingness to spend time on the ground if knocked down. Oliveira’s jiu-jitsu pedigree ensures that once he’s on the ground, he’s relatively safe. No striker with an ounce of self-preservation would engage Oliveira on the ground. Instead, they often choose to awkwardly kick his legs and allow him to recover before welcoming him to the feet.
The times that we’ve seen Oliveira struggle at lightweight have been those willing to engage him on the ground. With explosive confidence in his own ground game, Michael Chandler bounded into Oliveira’s safe space and continued to strike on the ground, almost finishing Oliveira. Likewise, Kevin Lee managed to find pockets of success on top of Oliveira.
Khabib’s Protégé
If anybody should be willing to enter Oliveira’s guard, it would be Islam Makhachev. Burdened with the difficult task of being Khabib Nurmagomedov’s protégé, Islam has given fans little reason to doubt his own ability. Although emitting low output in his early fights, Machachev’s ground-and-pound has increased recently speaking to his increased confidence in his abilities. Similarly to Oliveira, Makhachev will clasp up a clinch and work in uppercuts. His clinch provides him with most of his takedown opportunities, opting for trips and throws. On the feet he works from a Southpaw stance, using the classic wrestler’s overhand to work into clinch positions and provide a scary punch with stopping power. As a dominant wrestler, he can throw his southpaw kicks to the head and body with minimal takedown threat; most opponents will find more success standing than grappling.
The Matchup Between Oliveira And Makhachev
What makes this bout so fascinating is that both fighters work in the same arenas. The clinch is Oliveira’s battleground of choice and uses it to exert much of his pressure and bodywork. However, the clinch is Makhachev’s primary vehicle for takedowns with his trips and throws. As a result, we may see an ugly clash as both fighters tie up trying to work their games, eating strikes, and perhaps falling in the process. If any fighter would abandon the clinch I would imagine it to be Oliveira, who has shown to be the most adaptable of the pair (leaving out his hooks against fellow hooker Gaethje) and would seem to have more to lose from being thrown into a bad position. That being said, we have seen Makhachev abandon his usual cage wrestling style when fighting a decorated jiu-jitsu player such as Davi Ramos. Here, Makhachev chose to engage mostly on the feet only playing into Ramos’s ground game when he had him hurt. We may see a similar approach from Makhachev, although Ramos is hardly Charles ‘Do Bronx’ on the feet.
Indeed, in a kickboxing fight, Oliveira would seem to have the best path to success. A sharp left hook, powerful straights, and his rangey front kicks allow Oliveira to work from his chosen distance. Makhachev’s striking isn’t the comical flailing of early Nurmagomedov, but he hasn’t the technical diversity of ‘Do Bronx’. Oliveira has walked through the onslaughts of many superior strikers, so don’t hope for a KO on the feet from Makhachev here.
However, Oliveira’s chin has shown tenderness in the past and the Makhachev overhand definitely has some pop behind it. Oliveira’s defense against being hurt may be rendered useless too, as playing guard to recover would simply invite the Dagestani to work his way into a half-guard or mount for follow-up strikes. That being said, Oliveira should be the superior striker of the two with more weapons in his arsenal and legit power as attested by Chandler and Gaethje.
Much like the rest of the fight, the grappling exchanges of Oliveira and Makhachev seem to play perfectly into one another’s weaknesses. Oliveira has shown difficulty up against the fence, controlled by big top players. This works perfectly into the top-heavy cage-wrestling style of Makhachev, who may be able to neutralise Oliveira’s submissions and keep him pinned in his preferred half-guard (or stacked up along the fence) for many of the grappling exchanges. In Charles’ favour, however, Makhachev has shown a tendency to get caught in submissions. His grappling prowess has carried him to victory in spite of this fact, but Oliveira is unlike any submission artist the Dagestani has yet faced. If Islam shows his natural willingness to accept a submission threat to achieve a position he may end up quickly seeing the fight slip from his grasp.
Breaking down this matchup only yields more questions than it does answers. How does the clinch play out? Does Oliveira break Makhachev down with bodywork and overwhelm him? Does Makhachev dominate Oliveira from dominant top positions? Can Oliveira catch Makhachev in his usual habits? All remains to be seen with this highly anticipated main event.
